The Q Beat

The Death of the NFL Fantasy Sleeper

The Q Beat

Since fantasy sports exploded onto the national scene, “sleeper” has become the most over-used term in the hobby. About a decade ago, one of the best ways to win fantasy leagues was to unearth productive players who others in your league either wrote off or hadn’t heard of before the season.

After the last several years, though, I have come to the realization there is simply no such thing as a sleeper, at least in the sense that most people use the term. With the growth of fantasy football on the internet (seriously, google “fantasy football,” but then just come back here) and the myriad preview magazines available on news stand shelves beginning in June, there just isn’t some holy grail of unknown players anymore.

Seriously, fantasy football players, could I name anyone you haven’t heard of? Let me throw out some names, and see if you know of them: Austin Collie, David Clowney, Glen Coffee, Chaz Schilens and Jerheme Urban. Odds are, you’ve probably at least heard of them if you’ve been preparing for this fantasy football season. If not, it’s entirely possible you don’t need to know any of them. None of these guys are going to help you in normal sized yearly leagues, unless you have incredibly deep rosters. In deeper leagues these are guys who you can entertain toward the end of the draft, but they aren’t going to be game-changers in the current circumstances. Sure, you can pound your chest about how much NFL knowledge you have when you announce their name on draft day and about five of your league-mates say “who?” That’s not going to help these players win you fantasy crowns, though.

So, do I try to name someone like a “sleeper” in each team preview, to show off my oh-so-impressive knowledge of depth charts? I’d say no, lest some poor reader — who is new to fantasy football — snag all five of those guys thinking his team is stacked. The much better method to gloss someone an actual “sleeper” is a player who will outperform his draft-day position. For example, Thomas Jones was a very solid sleeper last year. He was going far too late in drafts and he ended up scoring a career-high in touchdowns. But everyone already knew who he was. They just didn’t care.

Let us rewind back to last July, though. What if every single publication and Web site discussing fantasy football had tabbed Jones as a sleeper — like, ahem, we did — who would bust through for double-digit touchdowns? Would he still have provided near as much value? Maybe, maybe not. Depends upon your league mates.

It’s all a judgment call, of course, but don’t go drooling over every player you read is a “sleeper.” There are far too many die-hard football fans out there and far too much information to believe you are going to pull the proverbial wool over their eyes by selecting a player far too early because FanHouse told you he was under the radar.

The true, old-school sleeper is dead. Now, the key word is value. Make sure you get guys at their proper value and all will be well.

Here are a few guys who I’m worried are getting so much preseason attention for being underrated that they are in danger of becoming overrated. It may not have happened yet, but it’s started. We’ll have to take a look in early August and see if the trend continues. Thus, don’t avoid these guys just yet — this is more of a yellow flag.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Colts: I already covered him while hinting at this phenomenon in the Colts team preview. Yes, Marvin Harrison is gone. Gonzalez will get increased looks, but he won’t be the second option in the passing game — Dallas Clark will. Gonzalez, though, is creeping up into the early twenties or even late teens in terms of receivers being taken. That’s far too high, and I believe the hype will pick up steam as we get closer to the season.

Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: There are lots of reasons to love Thomas, but we have to curb a little enthusiasm due to the fact that he’s still in somewhat of a time-share with Reggie Bush and plays on a team which passes the ball with insane frequency. He’s currently going 16th in running backs, immediately ahead of Thomas Jones and Ryan Grant. Both of those two have better value at this point.

Kevin Smith, RB, Lions: And right behind Grant? Kevin Smith of the Detroit Lions. He’s going 19th. The Lions are going to get better (it’s not really possible not to), but they still have a suspect line and get to play some pretty stout run defenses this season. You can get Darren McFadden or Larry Johnson two rounds later, which I’d love to do.

Greg Olson, TE, Bears: Yes, the Bears now have a better quarterback, but Olson got plenty of attention, especially in the red zone, from Kyle Orton last season. Olsen is getting drafted ahead of Chris Cooley and a whole round earlier than Owen Daniels. Not sure I can get on board with that, even being a Bears homer.

Lee Evans, WR, Bills: He’s never been able to find consistency, and now we’re expecting it when he’s playing second fiddle to Terrell Owens? I’m OK with Evans as a WR3, but he’s pretty shaky as a WR2 right now.

Michael Crabtree, WR, Niners: It hasn’t happened yet, but the closer we get to the season, the more we’ll be hearing about how healthy Crabtree is, and it will help him skyrocket up draft boards. Remember, he’s still a rookie and doesn’t have a great quarterback. Do you know what this line is? 48 catches, 756 yards and 4 touchdowns. That’s right, Calvin Johnson’s line his rookie season. How about this one: 58 catches, 780 yards and 8 scores. Larry Fitzgerald. Is Crabtree more talented than those two? Does he have a much better situation than either did?

Matt Cassel, QB, Chiefs: He actually may be valued just fine. Let’s just remember he’s never done anything without the cushy Patriots offense at his disposal.

It’s entirely possible these guys can be solid fantasy options, but don’t pay too hefty a price. Remember, a player’s value is always relative to what you paid for him — and every league is different. In fact, it’s possible for a player to be a huge bust in one league and great value in another.

The only person listed above I’m 100 percent avoiding this year is Crabtree. I’d easily consider any of the others if they fell to where I deemed them a solid value pick. Just beware of trying to beat all your leaguemates to them.

Remember, the sleeper is dead. (The Q Beat got some help from the NFL Fanhouse for this story)

Q July 13 2009

UFC 100 Card Boasts an All Star Cast

The Q Beat

(Miami Herald) It’s Christmas in July for Mixed-Martial Arts fans. In what promises to be some of the best fights of the year, Ultimate Fighting Championship presents UFC 100 from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas.

In the main event — a rematch to determine the true UFC heavyweight champion — former WWE star Brock Lesnar takes on Frank Mir. Their first fight took place in February of 2008, a bout Lesnar appeared set to win as he grounded and pounded Mir. But the Las Vegas native put Lesnar in a leg lock to seal the victory. It’s Lesnar’s lone defeat in his four-bout MMA career.

Many UFC fans expect Lesnar to rebound, especially after his dominant win against UFC legend Randy Couture. Lesnar is 6-3 and 265 pounds, with Mir not much smaller at 6-3, 240. But when placed side by side with any UFC heavyweight, Lesnar looks monstrous. He does hold the power factor over Mir, but Mir is a more complete fighter.

Mir recently defeated my favorite MMA fighter of all time and one of the most decorated in the sport’s history — Antonio Rodrigo ”Minotauro” Noguiera. Mir beat down ”Minotauro” worse than anyone in the Brazilian’s career — even worse than Fedor Emilianenko. He dominated Noguiera, stopping him in the second round.

Could it be that MMA fans and analysts could be underestimating one of the best heavyweights in UFC history?

Lesnar has the body, strength and power, but does he have the skills to avoid being caught in another leg lock, or an arm bar, or a triangle choke?

Let’s rewind to another dominant former wrestler who achieved maximum success in the UFC — former champion Dan ”The Beast” Severn. He was dominating opponents with sheer power at a time when the UFC did not have weight divisions. Enter Royce Gracie, a legend of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and the sport’s first star.

When the smaller Gracie took on Severn, he was overpowered for the first 15 minutes until a triangle choke forced Severn to tap out. Skill was the winner that night — it was Feb. 2, 2008 — and might be again July 11.

I expect a fast-paced first round with Lesnar getting the better of Mir, but in the second round I believe Lesnar will slow down and Mir will take advantage and win by knockout.

The next-biggest fight of the night is the one I’m anticipating most. Canada’s Georges ”Rush” St-Pierre, considered by many the best pound-for-pound fighter in the sport, defends his welterweight title against Coconut Creek resident Thiago ”Pitbull” Alves.

St-Pierre is 18-2 and has avenged both of his defeats — against Matt Hughes and Matt Serra. His last win, against B.J. Penn — another of the UFC’s best — was one-sided. He is one of the strongest, fastest, most athletic fighters in MMA. This time though, St-Pierre faces a big obstacle when he takes on possibly the strongest fighter he has ever faced.

”Pitbull” is an inch shorter than St-Pierre but is probably stronger. Alves walks around at more than 200 pounds, and will be fighting St-Pierre at 170. Watching Alves train at The American Top Team Gym in Coconut Creek is a treat.

He is what one would call a beast, and knowing Thiago for a couple of years, I’ve seen him grow from a boy in the sport to a man. His skill gets better each time out. Before taking on Hughes in June of 2008, Alves told me Hughes was just another fighter in his way on his path toward the title and that he wasn’t concerned. Hughes, a former champion, was a few years past his prime but was still formidable. Alves lived up to his word, stopping Hughes in two rounds.

Alves, a native of Fortaleza, Brazil, hasn’t lost since 2006, when he was stopped by Jon Fitch. After that it has been seven straight wins. He had a tough fight against Chris Lytle, but after that it has been pure dominance against Hughes, Karo Parisyan and Josh Koscheck.

I predict Alves will give St-Pierre his all, punch him, take him down, maybe even cut him, but at the end I think St-Pierre will win by decision.

The rest of the card is stacked, with former PRIDE heavyweight and light-heavyweight champion Dan Henderson taking on Britain’s Michael Bisping, a contender in the middleweight division.

The bigger and stronger Henderson might be too much for Bisping to handle, especially at 185 pounds, although Bisping is definitely no slouch. His only MMA defeat was against former light-heavyweight champ Rashad Evans via split decision, and he holds wins against Chris Leben and Matt Hamill.

Another fight that will be televised is a very intriguing bout at 170 pounds between Fitch and unbeaten Paulo Thiago. The matchup promises to be as exciting as any of the three main bouts.

For MMA fans, the card promises to be a treat. In this tough economy it’s hard to shell out $59 for pay-per-view, but this one is worth the price of admission.

Q July 9 2009

Onyewu is Heading Across the Pond to AC Milan

The Q Beat

(NY Times) Oguchi Onyewu, a key member of the United States national team that reached the final of the Confederations Cup in South Africa, became only the second American to join Italy’s famed Serie A when he signed a three-year contract Tuesday with A.C. Milan.

The club announced on its Web site that Onyewu, who holds a European Union passport after playing four seasons in Belgium for Standard Liege, will be with the Rossoneri through June 2012.

As we noted Monday, a number of foreign clubs, many in England, were interested in the hulking centerback. But Milan signed the 6-foot-4 Onyewu as it begins to rebuild after five years without a scudetto and three years without a major trophy.

“I think it’s a really smart signing,” said the former United States defender Alexi Lalas, the first American to play in Serie A when he signed with Padova in 1994. “I’m really happy for him. I can’t belive it’s taken this long for another American to get an opportunity over there.”

Onyewu, 27, played with Standard Liege from 2004 to 2009, establishing himself as a key member of the team that won the Jupiler League last season. But a move from a small European league to one of the top teams in one of Europe’s best leagues was somewhat of a surprise.

“He’s had success internationally, success in Belgium with his club,” said Lalas, adding Onyewu’s physicality, his ability in the air and his skill defending players one on one would bolster the A.C. Milan back line. “They think he’s ready to take that next step.”

Milan, winner of seven European Cups and 17-time champion of Serie A, enters a rebuilding phase after losing its coach, Carlo Ancellotti, to Chelsea in England; its master playmaker, Kaká, to Real Madrid in Spain; and its inspirational leader, Paolo Maldini, to retirement. Onyewu may be seen as a replacement for Maldini, the anchor of the Rossoneri defense for 23 years.

A.C. Milan’s new coach, Leonardo, will now have a new choice as he reorganizes the Rossoneri lineup. Without Maldini and defender Philippe Senderos, who returned to Arsenal in London after a loan spell in Milan, the Brazilian manager must depend on Kakha Kaladze and Alessandro Nesta, two players with histories of injuries, to form the core of the defense. Onyewu, Daniele Bonera and the recent signing of Brazilian defender Thiago Silva from Fluminense, give him new options.

The acquisition of Onyewu didn’t cost Milan a transfer fee because the player’s last contract expired June 30. His standout performance for the U.S. at the Confederations Cup no doubt helped convince Milan’s player personnel executives the American was worth a contract.

“He rolled the dice being a free agent,” said Lalas, who worked as an ESPN analyst for the Confederations Cup. “If there was a doubt in his skills, any kind of question, a game like the Spain game was a wonderful display of his abilities.”

Onyewu anchored the U.S back four when the team upset Spain, the No. 1-ranked team in the world, 2-0 in the Confederations Cup semifinal. During that match, Onyewu subdued La Roja’s dynamic centerforward, Fernando Torres, and cleared several threatening crosses, showing both skill and physical strength that will server him well in Italy, Lalas said.

“Serie A has a reputation for being highly tactical, and rightly so,” said Lalas, “but I don’t neccesarily equate highly tactical, with being exceedingly skillful.”

“It’s a very cerebral league, how you play is much more dictated by how you think than your physical abilities.”

The pressure will be on at a big club like Milan, but Onyewu, like Lalas did fifteen years ago, will likely face more pressure because he is American, a novelty in Serie A. Fans and clubs in Italy will pre-judge other U.S. players by his performance.

Q July 7 2009

The 2009 NL Home Run Derby Participants

The Q Beat

The All-Star Game will be played in St. Louis next week, but for a lot of baseball fans the game itself is secondary to some of the other events that take place during the break. The main attraction for many fans is the Home Run Derby, which will take place the Monday night before the game.

Today it was announced who the four sluggers representing the senior circuit will be and there’s definitely a theme to the National League’s “roster.” All four participants are power-hitting first baseman from around the league. Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Adrian Gonzalez and Ryan Howard will all put on what should be a rather entertaining show.

The American League will announce its participants later.

Q July 6 2009

The UFL is Welcoming Vick With Open Arms

The Q Beat

(AP) — When the United Football League debuts in October, Michael Vick could be one of its players.

Michael Huyghue, the commissioner of the new four-team league, says the UFL is willing to give Vick a place to play — provided there are no pending legal issues. His rights belong to the Orlando franchise.

“One of the things that is important in our premiere season is to showcase the quality of talent and the coaches, and to be able to show outstanding players who find themselves in this quagmire the NFL creates,” Huyghue said. “Michael Vick might be that kind of player because he is … a phenomenal talent, but he needs transitionining back into the NFL.

“Also gaining as much widespread exposure for the league as possible might be addressed with Michael Vick.”

Huyghue said he will monitor the Vick situation closely and “if he is free and clear of legal issues, we will look at the situation.”

Vick already has served an 18-month sentence in federal prison for his involvement in a dogfighting ring. He is under home confinement until July 20, after which the NFL is expected to announce whether the former Atlanta Falcons quarterback will be suspended.

Vick, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2001 draft, has not played football since the 2006 season.

The UFL will have teams in Orlando, New York, Las Vegas and San Francisco, playing games mostly on Thursday nights in October and November. The championship game will be Nov. 27, the day after Thanksgiving.

Orlando acquired UFL rights to Vick in an allocation draft of players not under contract in the NFL.

“I don’t know if the NFL will suspend Vick,” said Dennis Green, coach of the San Francisco team and the chairman of the UFL’s competition committee — a role he also held while coaching in the NFL. “What he did was very wrong, and he paid his debt to society. He was a model inmate, otherwise he never would have made it out from prison early.

“Now he has to show he loves the game and is a responsible citizen. You can’t show you love the game if you’re not able to play the game. So if Michael Vick were to say, `I will play for not a lot of money,’ well, hello. We’re here.

“If he is not allowed back into the NFL and he wants to show he is a model citizen and he loves the game, there is not a better situation for him.”

NFL spokesman Greg Aiello said the league would have no comment. Joel Segal, Vick’s agent, did not immediately respond to a message left by The Associated Press.

While it sounds as if Vick will be welcomed into the UFL, Huyghue would not address the situations of Plaxico Burress, Donte’ Stallworth or other NFL players with legal problems.

“Every player will have to be unique and different,” he said.

Green reiterated there have been no UFL discussions about those players, and he emphasized the UFL will not be an outlaw league.

“We don’t want to be known as a league where if guys are in trouble, that is where you go,” Green said.

Q July 3 2009